As the world navigates a landscape of economic uncertainty and geopolitical tension, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive return to the global stage in 2025 is reshaping political dynamics far beyond American borders. His unrelenting attacks on international norms—particularly in trade and diplomacy—are thrusting moderate leaders into the spotlight. Electorates are increasingly rewarding stability and pragmatism over populism’s unpredictable fervor. This is one of the key outcomes of Trump’s-chaotic-diplomacy.
A World on Edge
Since his inauguration in January 2025, Trump has wasted no time reasserting his “America First” doctrine. His administration’s swift imposition of tariffs—25% on Canada and Mexico, 10% on China, and sweeping levies on steel and aluminum imports—has sent shockwaves through global markets. These moves, justified under the banner of a national emergency tied to immigration and drug trafficking, echo the tariff wars of his first term but with a sharper edge. Allies and adversaries alike are scrambling to respond. Canada and the European Union have announced retaliatory measures, and China is hinting at currency adjustments to offset the damage. All these events are contributing to the narrative of Trump’s-chaotic-diplomacy.
This chaos has compounded existing global instability. Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on, now complicated by North Korean involvement. Meanwhile, the Middle East reels from the fallout of Syria’s regime collapse and ongoing Israeli-Iranian tensions. Against this backdrop, Trump’s approach—characterized by brinkmanship and a rejection of multilateral cooperation—has left world leaders grappling with a dual challenge. They need to manage domestic fallout while also countering an erratic U.S. policy. Indeed, Trump’s-chaotic-diplomacy has added layers of complexity to international relations.
The Moderate Resurgence
Amid this turbulence, a surprising trend is emerging: electorates are turning to moderate leaders who promise steady hands over fiery rhetoric. In nations caught in Trump’s crosshairs, political success is increasingly tied to a leader’s ability to navigate his unpredictable style without sacrificing national interests. This shift is partly a response to Trump’s-chaotic-diplomacy.
Take Canada, for instance. Ontario Premier Doug Ford, a conservative with a populist streak, initially cheered Trump’s election. However, he quickly pivoted to a more measured stance after tariffs hit. His retaliatory levies on U.S. energy exports—coupled with a diplomatic push in Washington—have bolstered his approval ratings. He is now seen as a pragmatic defender of Canadian sovereignty. Similarly, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, a progressive, secured a one-month tariff reprieve through deft negotiations. She has earned praise for her “cool-headed” approach in a country where Trump’s policies stir deep resentment.
Across the Atlantic, the European Union’s response has elevated figures like Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission President. Her “strong but proportionate” counter-tariffs on U.S. goods—targeting Republican-leaning states—signal a calculated defiance. This resonates with voters wary of both Trump’s aggression and their own populist fringes. Even in the UK, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s refusal to “choose sides” between the U.S. and EU has positioned him as a bridge-builder. This is a rarity in an era of polarization.
Why Moderates Are Winning
Trump’s chaotic diplomacy thrives on disruption. However, it’s precisely this instability that’s fueling the moderate comeback. Voters, battered by rising costs from trade wars and unnerved by global crises, are scoring their leaders on competence rather than charisma. A recent OECD report projecting a dip in global growth to 3.1% in 2025 underscores the stakes. This dip is driven partly by trade restrictions. In this environment, leaders who can deliver predictability, even if imperfect, hold a distinct edge.
This shift isn’t universal. In nations less directly impacted, like India, where growth is forecast to climb to 6.4%, populist or nationalist voices still hold sway. However, for those in Trump’s orbit, the electorate’s message is clear. They value leaders who can steady the ship or they should step aside. Posts on X reflect this sentiment. Users praise leaders who “stand up to Trump without starting a war” and critique those who “bend too far” or “fight too hard.”
The Trump Paradox
Ironically, Trump’s attacks may be undermining his own influence. By alienating allies and emboldening rivals, he’s creating space for moderates to assert a counter-narrative. This narrative champions cooperation over confrontation. His threats to retake the Panama Canal or impose tariffs on BRICS nations have sparked backlash in Latin America and beyond. These actions amplify calls for leaders who can resist without escalating tensions into outright conflict. Thus, Trump’s-chaotic-diplomacy complicates his standing even further.
Yet, Trump’s approach retains its domestic appeal. His base cheers the tariffs as a defense of American jobs. His administration touts early “wins” like Canada’s and Mexico’s promises to tighten border security. Whether these concessions hold—or unravel under economic strain—remains to be seen.
Looking Ahead
As 2025 unfolds, the world will watch how this moderate resurgence plays out. Can these leaders sustain their momentum, or will Trump’s chaos breed a counter-wave of populism? For now, electorates seem to crave the calm of the middle ground. This is a stark rebuke to a U.S. president whose every move thrives on upending it. In a globe teetering on the edge, moderation might just be the radical choice of our time amidst Trump’s-chaotic-diplomacy.
